Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau greets supporters during a campaign stop in Richmond Hill, Ontario, Canada, Aug. 27.

Photo: Cole Burston/Bloomberg News

Toronto

When Prime Minister Justin Trudeau dropped the writ, or dissolved Parliament, on Aug. 15, he seemed to be in a good position to win his third successive election. Two weeks later, it looks like a real contest. His Liberal Party, which had comfortably led almost every poll for more than a year, suddenly found itself within the margin of error, then trailing the Conservative Party by 7.6 points in the latest EKOS daily tracking poll. Canada doesn’t elect leaders by nationwide popular vote—the Conservatives received more votes when they lost to the Liberals in 2019. But the election is now a toss-up.

Mr. Trudeau seems to have underestimated voter frustration. A Mainstreet Research/Toronto Star poll conducted on Aug. 10-11 found that 65% of Canadians wanted to avoid the ballot boxes. That surely includes many Liberals who believe Ottawa is heading in the right direction and don’t want to disrupt the political apple cart.

Meantime, the new Conservative leader, Erin O’Toole, has turned out to be more formidable than expected. He has followed the playbook of Mr. Trudeau’s Conservative predecessor, Stephen Harper (for whom I worked) and gone on offense. The Conservatives’ strategy has three parts.

First, they’ve emphasized the cost of the snap “pandemic election,” which Elections Canada estimates at around 610 million Canadian dollars (US$480 million), more than C$107 million above the 2019 tab.

Second, they’ve capitalized on Mr. Trudeau’s poor leadership. He focused on environmental policies and implemented pet projects like a national carbon tax during the pandemic. He proposed a publicly funded universal child-care program that will cost C$30 billion over five years. Building stronger relations with Indigenous leaders, a government priority for years, has failed. And there are Mr. Trudeau’s blackface scandal and public spats with other members of Parliament, mostly women.

Third, they’ve made it a referendum on Mr. Trudeau’s handling of Covid-19. Canada’s vaccine-distribution plan got off to a rocky start. His emergency financial relief measures for individuals and businesses expanded the federal deficit to C$343 billion, an order of magnitude bigger than its pre-Covid size, while the debt will surpass C$1 trillion for the first time. The Conservatives promise their own Covid-19 plan, a balanced budget within 10 years, and tax credits for capital investment, child care and small business.

Mr. O’Toole’s international focus is sharper than Mr. Trudeau’s. He immediately declared that a Conservative government “will not recognize the Taliban as the legitimate government of Afghanistan.” Foreign Affairs Minister Marc Garneau said Canada would take a “wait and see” approach a day before Mr. Trudeau said no to recognition.

Another positive sign for the Conservatives was a shocking win in Nova Scotia’s Aug. 17 provincial election. No pollster had called the election for Premier-designate Tim Houston, who won a majority government. Mr. Trudeau was hoping to win the majority that eluded him in 2019. Canadians will decide on Sept. 20 if he continues to govern at all.

Mr. Taube, a columnist with Troy Media and Loonie Politics, was a speechwriter for former Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper.

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